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The Approach

A Cash Out Refinance is Tax Free Money

April 12, 2017

cash out refinance tax free money

Cool as a cucumber

That pineapple is way cooler. Coolest? A pile of tax free money thanks to a cash out refinance.

Who doesn’t love a pile of free money?

Imagine you won $26k in some sweepstakes. How excited would you be? So pumped! You immediately start dreaming up all the things you are going to buy… how much do those water jet packs cost?

Then your friend Debbie, who is always a downer, warns that you’ll have to pay taxes on the winnings. So you will really only receive $15k. Ouch.

What if there were a way to get a pile of money that you don’t owe taxes on? Enter the cash out refinance.

What is a Cash out Refi?

When you refinance a mortgage, you are signing up for a new loan that will replace your old one.

If the amount you own on the old mortgage is less than the new loan balance, you can keep the rest. Since you are turning equity into cash, it is called a cash out refinance.

You might wonder, why isn’t this taxed?

Well you aren’t actually gaining anything – you are turning one asset (equity) into another (cash), while your loan balance increases. Net it is a wash.

Or put another way, you aren’t taxed on money you receive on a loan. In fact, since this is a mortgage, you might even get tax benefit with a mortgage interest deduction!

Rental Property Example with Numbers

Eight years ago you went through the slight hassle of purchasing a rental property.

The purchase price was $80k and you put 20% down, so your initial mortgage was $64k.

Then it was smooth sailing. The tenant paid the mortgage for you, while you went about your life.

Today the mortgage balance is $53k.

The value of the property also increased to $110k. You were expecting about 3% a year appreciation, keeping pace with inflation, but you got a little lucky with 4%.

loan in yr 0 and 8

Pretty solid build up over 8 years! As a percentage, the loan is 48% of the value of the property.

You have a lot of equity in the property, but that equity doesn’t earn any extra return. Wouldn’t it be great to put that money to work?

The Numbers After a Cash Out Refi

Current rules allow for a 75% loan to value ratio on a cash out refinance.

So you would be starting a new 30 year mortgage with an $83k balance.

after refi

You get a new loan for $83k and you owe $53k on the original loan. So you pocket $30k minus the costs of doing the refi, which may be around $4k.

$26k tax free!

Your mortgage payment will go up slightly, but if you have been able to successfully raise the rents, the tenant will still pay it. You wouldn’t do a cash out refinance unless you can still get monthly cashflow on the property.

How to Spend the Money?

You could go on a huge shopping spree, but I like to think of my rentals as a portfolio. I reinvest the earnings from cashflow and equity.

If your property is $110k, I bet others in the neighborhood are $110k too.

If you put 20% down on a new property with $4k in closing costs, it comes to exactly $26k out of pocket. That number sure sounds familiar…

You took the equity from property 1 and used it to get property 2. The first property cloned itself.

In the short term, your net worth suffered as a result of the $4k refi and $4k in closing costs for the new property. But how do things stand in the long run? Well! To begin, you should thoroughly understand any additional costs – closing costs – you may have to bear while dealing with a property by visiting websites such as https://sharonsteelerealestate.com/nj-closing-costs/. This is because it can have an impact on both your short and long-term financial management. When you are aware of all possible outcomes, you can make better decisions.

Projecting Into the Future

Now you are the proud owner of two rental properties. Ballin’!

With the impressive returns on rental properties, what can you conservatively predict?

Each year, for each property:

  • $1k in cashflow after all expenses
  • $3.5k in appreciation (roughly 3% a year, same as inflation)
  • $1.5k decrease in the mortgage balance the tenant kindly pays for you
  • Plus tax savings we won’t include here to keep it simple
  • Sign up for the email list for the complete breakdown of these numbers

With two properties your overall return is $12k a year. You doubled the amount you earn each year!

Since the second property didn’t require any additional investment, your portfolio only required the $20k eight years ago ($16k down, $4k in closing costs).

Put another way – eight years ago you paid $20k and now your net worth goes up $12k every year!

Do you see how powerful this is?

Starting This Process with My First Rental

I’m currently talking to lenders about a cash out refinance on my Atlanta rental. It has only been 6 years, but my calculations indicate now is a good time.

I’ll share the complete numbers soon, but they are fairly similar to the example above.

When I’ve written about this topic before, people have objected to paying $4k in refi costs to get $26k back. That is a whopping 15% fee!

In my opinion this is stingy – who cares what someone else makes money off me as long as I get mine? This is a win-win situation.

It is also short term thinking – yes there is a hit to your net worth, but you have doubled your earning potential! Project a decade in the future and the right decision is obvious.

I want to hear what you think. Is the fee too much for the tax free lump of cash in a cash out refinance? Do the benefits outweigh the costs?

Filed Under: Numbers, The Approach

How Many Battery Packs Would You Buy? A Thought Experiment

March 8, 2017

cable car thought experiment

The screams slash through the air like a papercut. You rip your eyes from your iPhone and quickly assess the situation.

A cable car is barreling down a San Francisco hill with no brakes. “This is going to end poorly” you think to yourself.

The intersection where you are standing is clear, but the next block is crowded with pedestrians. Some will be able to get out of the way, you estimate five will be crushed. There might even be a car or two in the runaway cable car’s way and the owner might not have a reliable repair shop to contact (similar to the ones who do auto repair in Lakewood) or even insurance per se!

And that’s when you notice it – a lever that turns the track. If you pull it, the cable car will make a right turn at the intersection, before reaching the crowd.

The good news is this is route has fewer people in the way. The bad – one person will surely die – an elderly man is directly on the track and his many years have taken a toll on his reflexes.

You must act now – do you pull the lever?

Trolley problem lever

Photo: McGeddon

Duh, no brainer. Obvi. Kill him!

Right?

You save five from likely death, and just doom one to certain death! Simple math: 1 But would that make you a murderer?

TWIST
The lever is gone. In it’s place is a 300 pound man.

If you use your judo skills to fling him under the wheels of the cable car at the intersection, it will come to a stop and not hurtle into the crowd.

Do you do it? Does that change your thoughts on if it is murder?

Fake Situation, Real Takeaways

I love thought experiments (this one is the classic Trolley Problem).

They are unadulterated with the complexities and realities of our world. They exist just in your imagination, but often have profound takeaways for real life.

Did the twist above change how you feel about the situation? Did it change your behavior?

If you are creative enough, you can always find a twist where two logical and ethical people will diverge.

How about in reverse though? What if you and I disagree on something – how can I convince you my side is correct?

What if I invent a thought experiment that boils the complexities of our argument down to the most important components, without the complexities of real world optics? Fake situation, but hopefully you will have real takeaways.

The World of Rubidium Batteries

Imagine a parallel universe where solar is the only allowed source of power. There are giant solar power plants that provide cheap energy, but not necessarily when you need it. That said, it’s pretty easy to find a solar battery supplier so I guess it’s not too much of an issue.

If it is a cloudy day, you don’t get much energy from the power company. If it is night, you get zero which is one of the downsides to solar power.

You can’t just go somewhere to purchase energy at these times, you have to store it yourself. You can check out websites such as Rooftop Solar to look at the proper and safe way to store these.

In this world, there are only one realistic way to store energy – rubidium battery packs. And it will remain this way for all of time.

Governments and large corporations own a very small portion of the rubidium battery packs and it will remain this way. The battery packs are owned by regular people.

Half of the population own their own battery pack, which they share with their family. The rest rent a battery pack.

The Economics of the Battery Packs

The supply of rubidium is fairly fixed. Rubidium is difficult to mine – with labor and manufacturing costs, new battery packs trickle onto the market (and when the economy is going poorly, zero new packs are created at all). Luckily there is a huge pile of rubidium already mined and produced into battery packs. Just enough to meet the initial demand.

It costs $100k to buy a rubidium battery pack.

Who has that kind of money laying around? To encourage ownership, the government provides artificially low guaranteed loans, allowing you to put just 20% down for a 30 year loan at 5% interest.

They rent for $1k a month. After the loan payment, servicing the battery regularly, paying insurance, and other expenses that crop up – the owner pockets $100 a month.

Running the numbers – if you put $20k down, you can expect a 6% cash return per year. But wait there’s more…

The Value of the Packs Over Time

There is a little math involved, but it is important to understand. Don’t gloss over this section!

Since the supply of the battery packs is tied so closely to the demand, the price tracks fairly closely to inflation at 3%.

So next year the packs will cost $103k. It doesn’t always work out exactly – there are ups and downs with the economy, but over several decades, it will average 3% a year.

The result is neutral for the battery pack owners who paid for it upfront – compared to inflation the battery packs neither gain nor lose value over time.

battery pack value with inflation

But those who finance get some nice value upside.

The loan balance is decreasing at the same time.

loan balance decreasing

How did the loan holder do compared to inflation? We have to convert his initial down payment to the value of the dollar in the current year.

down payment equivalents

  • $20k 10 years from now is $27k. So in +10 year dollars you have a pack worth $134k, put a down payment equivalent to $27k, and owe a loan balance of $65k. You made $42k. I like converting back to the original year dollars to understand it better, so you made $31k
  • 15 years from now: $156k (current value) – $31k (down payment equivalent) – $54k (loan balance) = $71k. In original dollars: $45k
  • 30 years from now: $243k (current value) – $49k (down payment equivalent) – $0 (loan balance) = $194k. In original dollars: $80k

profit in year 0 dollars

That is serious money just through the combination of the renter slowly paying down the loan for you, the value keeping track with inflation, and the loan balance not tracking with inflation.

Financing is the Way to Go

If you pay upfront for the rubidium battery pack, you make a 6% return per year. Pretty solid.

If you finance it at 20% down, your return varies slightly upon how long you keep the battery pack, but it is roughly $3k extra per year. On a down payment of $20k, this is a 15% return + the 6% cash return = 21%!

Which would you prefer, a 6% or 21% yearly return?

How many battery packs would you buy? Share / Tweet this

The Common Complaints

I have to have renters for all the battery packs, what a pain. Is a small inconvenience worth it for a 21% yearly return?

Only 6% of the return is in cash, the other 15% is just a paper asset value I don’t get to spend. Sounds like this would be a benefit for you because saving isn’t your natural tendency.

The estimate of the expenses of owning a battery pack are off, insurance costs more.Ok so drop the numbers a little, still way better than any other investment options.

What if the renter abuses the battery, it costs more to repair, and is a huge nightmare? Or what if they stop paying? Or what if ? You have some serious mental barriers, it is frankly amazing you are capable of getting out of bed in the morning.

Don’t these complaints seem petty?

Back to the Real World

I set up this rubidium battery scenario to hit upon the basic math of investing in rental properties. Everyone has their own preconceived notions about real estate investing – hopefully this thought experiment helped you cut through some of the malarkey.

I want you to understand the benefits of investing in rental properties before you decide it is too hard.

One more nugget of math to show you it is worth struggling through any road blocks to figure it out.

Say you plan to retire in 30 years. $20k invested in the stock market with an 8% return per year, gives you $200k.

Put that $20k in rental properties at a 21% yearly return, you have $6 million. There is definitely work reinvesting the profits, which you can’t do continuously, so let’s adjust. If you lower the estimate down to $2 million, it is literally still 10x better than the alternative.

How many speed bumps would you fight over for a ten time better result? Share / Tweet this

Would you let petty complaints hold you back? How many batteries would you buy?

Photo: Thomas Hawk

Filed Under: Mindset, The Approach

New Construction Rental Properties – Isn’t This Great?

February 17, 2017

new construction rental properties

My wife is wicked smart.

She chooses to disseminate her knowledge through movie quotes. There are some real nuggets of wisdom.

For example from Mike Damone’s five point plan in Fast Times at Ridgemont High:

Not relevant today is the linguini and white clam sauce, although that is a classy move. Rather this:

3. Act like wherever you are, that’s the place to be… “Isn’t this great!”

This is great life advice, but the same logic shouldn’t be applied when analyzing investment opportunities.

Several soon-to-be investors have asked my thoughts on various new construction rental properties. Let’s dig a little deeper to see if they really are great.

No Maintenance!

The number one reason a brand new property is attractive is that the repairs and maintenance will be zilch. At least for a while.

That can certainly help the numbers. You will still have to save for big ticket cap-ex items like a new HVAC in 10 years, but fewer small monthly upkeep items like a broken garbage disposal. When an issue involving the garbage disposal comes up, you may want to use a website like CALLSTEVESPLUMBING.COM/PLUMBING/GARBAGE-DISPOSALS/ to find out how to get it repaired, although this should not set you back too much. A rough estimate is an extra 5% of the rent collected for the first couple years. $50 a month on $1000 rent. Garbage disposal repairs can be a nightmare to fix if you don’t find the right professional to fix it. Head to www.moffettplumbing.com/areas-we-serve/plumber-westminster-ca/ if you are currently in this troubling predicament.

When it comes to things like the aforementioned air conditioning system, getting an ac tune up can ensure that regular maintenance keeps the unit in working condition, saving energy costs, and could protect the warranty.

Couple thousand bucks over a few years. All the big ticket items start at 0 years of life too, which you could value at another couple thousand dollars of future savings compared to a refurbished property.

Hardly over the top awesome.

Great Neighborhood?

With a whole new tract of homes, you might assume the neighborhood will be pretty nice. Everything is new right?

Sure, I think that is a safe assumption.

But what is the split of owners vs. renters? If you are considering buying a new rental property, they are likely marketing the properties to investors.

Too many rentals flooding the local market can be an issue. Especially with so many finished and placing tenants at the same time. This can have a softening affect on rents.

So it might be a great neighborhood in some respects, but overall is it a great neighborhood for a rental property investor?

Location, Location, Location

The biggest objection I have to new construction rental properties is the location. Think about it – where do they find a big tract of land to develop?

Oh look, here is the land no one noticed before right next to the freeway, just 10 minutes away from high paying jobs … NOT!!

It’s in the boonies. Generally development of cities is an expanding circle. New developments are the farthest away.

Let me pull up an example. Purchase around $180k, rent around $1600 a month. Beautiful Salisbury, North Carolina.

salisbury nc map

Within 50 miles of 3 major metros: Charlotte, Greensboro, and Winston-Salem. In other words – a long way from a lot of jobs.

I should note this isn’t always the case. Just typically.

The location matters because times are pretty good right now. If 5 years from now we are at the bottom of the cycle, where do you think people are going to buy homes? Close to where they want to be where there are still great deals, or far away? So which area is going to have the bigger price swing?

(A caveat is that sometimes there are legitimate reasons that far away suburb is attractive. Maybe a new train line is put in making it super easy to get downtown. Maybe there is a new office park or a big employer is expanding nearby. The commercial real estate industry is currently booming, and with new startups emerging on a regular basis, there is always going to be a need for a small office space rental opportunity. For example back in 2010 when I was just getting started, there was a biotech hub underway near Denver. Perhaps you buy into that narrative. Or even self-driving cars making commutes easier – just be aware you are investing based on that narrative.)

The Market Cycles

New properties are only built when it is profitable to do so. That is a signal that we are pretty high up in the cycle (see How to Visualize the Real Estate Cycle for more background).

That is precisely the time you want to be more conservative with your rentals. Hunting for the best rent to value ratios. Going to markets with smaller swings.

When you suspect you are closer to the bottom of the cycle, that is when you can take bigger risks. Sacrificing a little on the rent to value ratio for better neighborhoods and appreciation potential. Picking up properties in more desirable cities at a discount.

I Get the Appeal of New Construction Rental Properties

They sound great, but don’t stop your analysis there. Dig deeper.

Developers usually have larger marketing budgets than rehabbers, so these new construction deals are likely front-and-center when available.

I also believe they give bigger referral fees to companies like Jason Hartman and Norada. So if you work with a counselor there (like I do on my properties), they might see if you are interested in new construction before considering other options.

You know better than to blindly agree to “isn’t this great?” You are capable of your own analysis, even if it is as simple as looking at a map.

What do you think – do the pros outweigh the cons for new construction rental properties?

Filed Under: The Approach

Interest Rates Are Going Up, Have You Missed the Boat?

December 16, 2016

missed the boat

Are you someone who misses the good ol’ days?

I recently met up with a college friend I hadn’t seen in 7 years. He asked me if I missed the college days.

No.

I had the best college experience of nearly anyone on the planet. My four years at Stanford were perfect. A much welcomed academic challenge, unreal freedoms not seen at other universities, athletic achievements well beyond expectations, and incredible long-lasting friendships.

Yet I don’t sit and wish I could go back in time. I appreciate it, but don’t long for it.

The housing market is always changing as well. And many more people are warming to the idea of selling their home quickly for cash, with somewhere like The Buy Guys, (click here for more information) instead of going down the conventional route of finding the best real estate agents who can take on the role of selling their home.

Are you an investor who longs for the good ol’ days or takes advantages of today’s opportunities?

Interest Rates Are Going Up

This week the Federal Reserve raised the key interest rate a quarter of a point. And they said they are expecting to do it a couple more times in 2017.

What does this mean?

Honestly not a whole lot. In my opinion the Federal Reserve has become more reactionary, bending to the will of the market, rather than setting the market.

A quick look at a chart of the 30 year mortgage rate will tell you more. This is different than the Fed Rate, but they are all related somehow.

At the beginning of November the rate was 3.5% and now it is 4.1%.

Wow, that is quite a jump. How does that affect a mortgage payment?

For instance, when people contact a mortgage company with the net branches, the loan officer can hire other originators who will work directly for them. Customers who are looking for good mortgage loan deals will benefit from this as well.

It also allows the net branch manager to conduct business as a separate entity while remaining protected by a mortgage banking organization, which may benefit customers in other cities as well. Higher mortgage rates, on the other hand, may have an impact on the cost of purchasing a home.

From $405 per month to $434 a month for the type of property I invest in. ($100k purchase price, $80k mortgage, assuming the investor rate is 1% higher than the home owner rate.)

Ouch. If you purchased in October you would have had an extra $350 in cash flow a year.

Ya But…

Rates are historically low still. Even if we aren’t at the very bottom, it looks like a pretty good deal when you zoom out.

The biggest “ya but” is that everything is related. We shouldn’t just look at one number, the interest rate, and jump to a conclusion.

Higher interest rates indicate there is more inflation. As a leveraged rental property investor, inflation is where you make an absolute killing (see Inflation: The Great Mortgage Destroyer).

Higher interest rates will also affect all the other numbers we care about. Without getting too into the weeds, a larger monthly debt payment might soften the purchase price to counterbalance. Rents might rise as the expense gets passed through to the tenant. This means a stronger rent to value ratio.

There are many ways to win the game, we just have to adjust our strategy accordingly.

Appreciating Today’s Opportunities

It is important to have the right mindset. Rather than longing for the good ol’ days when you could get an incredible interest rate, appreciate today’s opportunities.

My mindset is to always be buying, not waiting for the perfect situation that may never come. Just adjust what you are doing.

I wouldn’t buy in San Francisco right now. Maybe not even Atlanta. But Memphis or Kansas City? Sure.

I want to avoid being one of those investors who wishes he bought earlier.

What do you think? Do higher interest rates make you less willing to get a rental property? How does it affect your strategy?

Photo: Roman Pfeiffer

Filed Under: Numbers, The Approach

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